February U.S. CPI Holds Steady, But Soaring Oil Prices Threaten Inflation Rebound

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on March 11, showing stable inflation readings that temporarily eased market fears of an immediate price spike — though surging crude oil prices now pose a major upside risk to future inflation levels.
The key February CPI figures are in line with economist estimates:

• Headline CPI: +0.3% month-on-month, +2.4% year-on-year (unchanged from January)

• Core CPI (excluding food and energy): +0.2% month-on-month, +2.5% year-on-year

While inflation remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target, the steady February readings suggest inflation is not accelerating rapidly for now. However, the oil market has emerged as a critical threat: Brent crude is projected to average $98 per barrel in March and April 2026, nearly 40% higher than the 2025 average.

This jump in energy costs has led major banks to raise their inflation forecasts. Goldman Sachs now expects the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — to hit 2.9% year-on-year in December 2026, a sharp increase from its earlier 2.1% projection.

To help stabilize domestic fuel prices, the U.S. Department of Energy has announced plans to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) starting next week. Retail gasoline prices have already jumped 22% month-on-month to roughly $3.58 per gallon, putting pressure on household budgets and raising concerns about broader consumer inflation.